Alien enemies may be lurking in the Milky Way!

Enzo Campetella Argentina measured 5 minutes
The study suggests that statistically in the Milky Way, up to four hostile civilizations can coexist with us.

We know that we are just a tiny speck in the distance. There are millions of potentially habitable planets in the Milky Way galaxy. Initial research now concludes that: that about four of them can harbor evil extraterrestrial civilizationswho would attack Earth if they could. This is suggested by a study published in the arXiv preprint database on Live Science.

This new work, which has yet to be reviewed, raises the disturbing question of how likely it is that humans will one day come into contact with a hostile extraterrestrial civilization. capable of conquering our planet. Even so, the study shows that there is a statistically higher probability of being hit by a potentially dangerous asteroid. Not to mention the damage we are doing to the planet ourselves.

To answer this question, the study’s sole author Alberto Caballero, a PhD student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo (Spain), first looked at human history before looking at the stars. Caballero noted that “this work is intended to estimate the prevalence of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations.”by extrapolating the probability that, as a human civilization, we will attack or invade an inhabited exoplanet. “

The basis of the calculations

But what method did Caballero use to come to this conclusion? First, he counted the number of countries that attacked other countries between 1915 and 2022. He found that a total of 51 out of 195 nations of the world made some kind of invasion during this period. The top of the list was the United States, which counted 14 raids during this period. It then examined the likelihood of invasion for each country based on its share of global military spending. The United States is again in the lead with 38% of global military spending.

In the next step, he added up the probability of each country starting an invasion, and then divided that sum by the total number of countries on Earth. to get what he calls “the present human probability of an extraterrestrial civilization invading.” His preliminary data may be skewed, assuming the same for other civilizations, but that is the basis on which it was based.

According to this model of analysis, the probability that humanity will attack another inhabited planet is now 0.028%. However, the probability depends on the present state of human civilization, and humans are currently not capable of interstellar travel. If the current pace of technological progress continues, interstellar travel would be possible only in 259 years, Caballero calculated on the Kardashev scale, a system that classifies a civilization’s level of progress according to its energy expenditure.

There is still a long way to go

The analysis below assumes that the frequency of human invasions will decline over this period at the same rate as in the past 50 years, or an average of 1.15% per year, according to Caballero’s article. Based on this, the human race has a 0.0014% chance of conquering another planet if we become an interstellar civilization (Type 1) within 259 years.

Milky Way
If we look at the Milky Way in the sky, it is possible that civilizations that are hostile to us live there.

This seemingly small possibility takes on a different color when multiplied by the millions of potentially habitable planets in the Milky Way galaxy. For his final calculations, Caballero used an article published in 2012 in the journal Mathematical SETI in which scientists predicted that up to 15,785 extraterrestrial civilizations could theoretically share a galaxy with humans.

Therefore, Caballero concluded that less than one of the Type 1 civilizations would be hostile to humans if they made contact. However, the number of enemy neighbors rises to 4.42 considering civilizations that, like modern humans, are not yet capable of interstellar travel.

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