After the ECB drop, hopes for a price increase focused on last week’s Fed event. Initially, however, prices continued to fall and thus carried out the sell signal we talked about on the big chart last Sunday in the medium term.
On the very day of the Fed, plus signs appeared. Even after the actual Fed meeting, at which the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 basis points. If you missed a live deal, here’s a replay for you:
As in May after the Fed meeting, the fixed level was quickly dropped. The next day wiped out all profits and was deeply in the downside. Around 3.3 percent. it was also the weakest trading day in several weeks. Round 13,000 started with just 7 points, covering 1,700 points from Green Monday.
A very sharp downtrend can be outlined, especially since the ECB day:
There were a few price gaps along the way that are still open and therefore are potential signs of improvement:
We will come to my view in a moment. Previously a reference to the expiration date on Friday. Even though high volatility is always spoken of in advance, it was a calm day with a range of 217 points on trading day. There was no new all-time low, and the upward price response was also contained by reaching Thursday afternoon’s highs. Comparable volume day to Friday the week before.
All in all, a negative week that put a lot of pressure on June, with a downside of more than 8 percent:
Only Wall Street was a bit weaker here, where the rate hikes are accompanied by fears of a recession. However, in an international comparison, the DAX only slightly surpassed Wall Street:
The Nasdaq in particular made investors concerned again this week. Last week we already talked about a scenario where new lows can be checked with this graph image (overview):
In fact, this was after the Fed meeting as the update shows:
Technically speaking, the bottom is yet to be seen.
How can DAX be continued at the beginning of the week?
Looking at the “Big Picture”, we noticed the first triangular signal on Sunday a week ago, which traders in particular at the end of the day should then implement at the beginning of the week (review:
This won and led to further losses of over 5% of the index. Therefore, I adjust the image of the chart and technically only keep an eye on the March low in the mid-term bottom orientation:
In short, I will use the shown gaps and gradient zones from the horizontal marks to derive the recovery levels:
Overall, 13,000 is psychological, then 13.23x as the first level of recovery early Monday. This is what we like to discuss live again at the market opening in the pre-market update.
Feel free to follow the course of trading and trading live with me and other traders on Germany’s first HD financial stream channel – the Twitch FIT4FINANZEN channel. Conveniently via the home page or app:
by the way: I will send you these graphics as a preparation for trading every morning by e-mail – if you signed up.
You will receive your detailed market expectations every day in the form of an e-mail to your e-mail inbox.
Next week, the Live Trading Room will be available from Tuesday at 10:00. We start the US session at 3:30 PM on Monday, even if there is no trade here. Click on this link to register:
There we go to the daily stocks that cause volatility with quarterly data. Here you can see a selection of stocks that will reveal their balance sheets in the coming week:
FedEx and BlackBerry are excited.
Otherwise, EU producer prices and construction output will be assessed from Germany on Monday.
On Tuesday, then the EU current account and the first US data for the new week. With the Chicago Fed activity index and a look at the real estate market, two very important data.
Jerome Powell is speaking on Wednesday as US oil stocks rise. As we approach Thursday, we are waiting for the preliminary US unemployment claims and other data to be presented to you separately on each trading day.
The most important dates listed with high priority for the coming week are listed here and are named in detail for each date:
Consequently, I wish us a lot of success at the start of trading this week and look forward to meeting in other formats.
Regards, Andreas Bernstein
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