Weekly DAX forecast on Sunday after strong July close

The DAX had a good week: the rate hike and recession in the US seem to be in the price. DAX and Nasdaq ended July very positively.

DAX investors will dare again

The DAX week was mainly accompanied by a side phase, which showed the estimate of market participants for the Fed’s interest rate hike and important GDP data. We’ve talked enough about the data itself. YES, there is a recession in the US and YES, in Germany there is no growth in the second quarter. However, prices went up.

After the temporary DAX consolidation back to 13,100 points, the market gained momentum. By the way, there were also corresponding long signals that we traded in the live broadcast:

The triangle from the consolidation phase to Thursday could thus have been resolved and continued on Friday (review):

20220728 The history of the DAX Xetra

Technically speaking, the 13,400 resistance area was on the agenda we also talked about (early week photo):

20220722 Xetra DAX hour chart

Following positive quarterly data from Apple and Amazon (see Friday morning video), the index looked at this area directly in the pre-market stage, consolidated shortly thereafter, and then skipped it at lunchtime. Further positive US data from the Dow Jones heavyweight companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil, which recorded quarterly highs, restored investor confidence.

We managed to overcome the resistance area and thus create another positive signal:

20220729 Xetra DAX hour chart

The market closed very clearly in the positive territory. What does this mean in general and what are the international markets?

DAX view in an international environment

Beating 13,400, the DAX generated another positive signal. Incidentally, the Nasdaq looks similar:

Nasdaq 100 chart signal

Subsequent purchases may take place at the beginning of the week and month.

Overall, the Nasdaq was positive for the third consecutive week and clearly outperformed other indices, including the DAX:

Stock index ranking week 31/2022

The US market in particular has shown that it focuses more on big companies like Apple and Amazon than on recession or even interest rates. Now the task is to check if it will only last a few days or if the shopping spree will last longer.

As for the DAX itself, I believe Friday’s strong growth is intact. Until the trendline breaks through since Thursday, when negative US GDP anchored the recession, we can take a quick look at 13,600 and GAP above:

20220729 Xetra DAX end of the week

If the price drops below 13,400 early in the week, I assume it’s a bull trap and will be on the short side.

I explain it in more detail in the video for this analysis here:

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This brings us directly to today’s meetings.

Dates of the new trading week

Also in the new week, I invite you to follow the course of transactions, quarterly data and my live trading with me and other traders on Germany’s first HD financial stream channel – Twitch FIT4FINANZEN channel. Conveniently via the home page or app:

FIT4FINANZEN Twitch on the home page
FIT4FINANZEN Twitch on the home page

In addition to the daily live stream on Twitch from 8.15am, there are also excerpts on my YouTube channel as a fully interactive video review later. I am very happy to be watched and will also be there around 8.00 live. A live trading room is also integrated.

Take care of other quarterly data of the week such as Uber, AMD or PayPal. The following overview is anchored here:

20220731 Earnings week

Of course, key data from the economic calendar is also available again. I have only anchored the most important cornerstones as we will move on to the dates on the individual days.

Monday retail sales from Germany are important. On Wednesday, ADP figures from a private employment agency from the US. Interest rate decision by the Bank of England on Thursday, followed by the official US employment report on Friday.

In this calendar you can see all expectations and appointments in detail:

Economic data week 32

Consequently, I wish us a lot of success at the beginning of trading and would be happy if you would use other formats.

Regards, Andreas Bernstein

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News source: Business meeting

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